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I first went to the races when I was 26 years old and that single visit sparked a lifelong passion for thoroughbred horse racing. Immediately, I started my quest for greater knowledge of the sport. Within a short time I was involved in race horse ownership and breeding. This "inside" the industry experience and keen application of horse race handicapping approaches culminated in Horsewin Selection Reports. The Horsewin advantage is race winners at higher prices which provides the needed edge to players who seek profits by playing the races.
"The sport of horse racing was always a hobby and past time as I devoted my full time efforts to a successful career in Public Administration." Through Horsewin I want to share my knowledge and skill to increase the enjoyment and potential profits for experienced and beginner horse racing fans alike. In some ways, while the premise of a horse race appears simple, the factors that go into determining the outcome of a race are very complex. My goal is to try to make that decision easier so more attention can be given to betting strategy and winning bets. In my view, profitable days at the races generate loyalty to the sport."
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Flat bets are the simplest method of betting. Widely considered a "low risk" strategy (it is NOT), the same equal stake is wagered, as a win single, on every selection. While flat bets are easy to comprehend, they are essentially a "control" strategy and neither minimise risk nor realise maximum potential profit. Nonetheless, level stakes betting is a good starting point for novice players. However, inexperienced backers should be aware of the risk potential of such a betting strategy, which very much depends on the percentage of the betting bank staked. Any betting strategy must be capable of enduring the long losing run. A very low risk level stakes strategy uses 2% of the available betting bank, allowing for a losing run of 50 before the bank is exhausted. In contrast, a very high risk strategy uses stakes of 10%, allowing for just 10 losers before the cash runs out. A "medium risk" strategy, utilising 5% of the bank per selection is recommended, allowing for a losing run of 20.
Professional gamblers consider a win percentage of 35%-40% to be very respectable. These expert punters aim for a minimum return on investment (ROI) in the region of 20%, i.e. a return of $1.20 for every $1 bet, which compares favourably with savings and other investments. They place their wagers on "premium" selections, with a clear advantage over the field and offered at VALUE ODDS. Many casual players are capable of achieving a 20% ROI, but few do. The critical factor that players fail to appreciate is that long-term profits depend on the odds at which the winning bets are struck and the correct stake. Knowing the win percentage and winners` average odds enables a backer to determine their "winning edge," according to the formula:
Winning Edge = Win % x Average Odds - Loss %. For example, for a punter with a win percentage of 30% at average odds of 5/2: Winning Edge = 30 x 2.5 - 70 = 5%.
This edge determines the correct size of the bet, according to the formula: Stake = Winning Edge ÷ Odds, so for the above, the optimal stake is 5 ÷ 2.5 = 2% of the betting bank. However, if the backer is able to increase the win percentage to 33%, the winning edge becomes 15.5% profit, a more than threefold increase. The required stakes also increase though, requiring 7.75% of the betting bank. The latter scenario should be within easy reach of most recreational speculators prepared to put in a little work on form analysis.
In North America, there are many exotic bets involving one more races. On a single race, Exacta involve picking the 1st 2 finishers in correct order, Trifectas requires the 1st 3 finishers in order, Superfectas are made up of the 1st 4 finishers and under different titles some tracks offer a wager on the 1st 5 finishers. Risk increases proportionately with the number of horses involved and reward also increases. Multiple Race wagers are also offered that include doubles that require the player to select the winner of 2 consecutive races and increses to Pick 3,s, Pick 4's, Pick 5's, Pick 6 and so on. Risk or Probability can be calcualted based on win percentage. For example, if the handicapper is capable of picking winners at a 33% rate then the probabilities for a double win are 1/3 X 1/3 or 1/9 chance of winning. On a pick 3, this increases to 1/27. These probabilities are reduced by playing multiple horses in each race but more money is put at risk and a higher payoff is required to achieve a profit.
An important strategy for Exotic Plays is to find a horse with an edge or win advantage that is not the favorite. Playing an"overlay" as key a key selection increases the profit potential significantly. It is very worthwhile to practice on making this type of selection to determine when you may have an edge in an exotic bet. This is an aproach that requires patience and perseverence but it can turn a losing player into a winner if practiced consistently. Of course, careful money management, as discussed above, has to be applied in this approach as losing streaks will increase but winning plays can quickly turn the bankroll around.
Multi-Race Wagers are doubles, Pick 3's, Pick 4's, Pick 5's, Pick 6's etc. The greater the number of races involved increase both the risk and the reward. A calculation of probability on a Pick 3 for a player who can predict 60% winners ( from 1 or more picks per race) looks like this: 6/10 = 3/5 probsability X 3 Races or 3/5 X 3/5 X3/5 = 27/125 or about 22% win rate or 1/5 chance of winning. These types of wagers require a large bankroll in order to survive losing streaks
Many players adopt the betting strategy of always backing the favourite in a horse race. This may be because everyone loves a winner and favourites win about 30% of the time, giving players a chance of 1 winner out of 3 wagers. However, blindly backing favourites is a certain way to give away the bankroll. Favorites win about 30% of the time. However, the average starting odds of the winning favourites are about 1.9/1. A $1 win bet on every favourite would have resulted in a loss. Furthermore, a long sequence of consecutive losing favourites such as 20 (which happens), would serously deplete many bankrolls.
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